To build Vietnam Overseas

  GOÙP PHAÀN XAÂY DÖÏNG VIEÄT NAM HAÛI NGOAÏI

                                                                                        GS NGUYEÃN CAO HAÙCH

         Trong hôn nöûa thaäp nieân vöøa qua (1993-2000), nhieàu ñoàng baøo VN haûi ngoaïi ñaõ may maén thaéng lôïi trong thöông tröôøng, nhaát laø nhöõng ngöôøi ñaàu cô chöùng khoaùn (stock speculation). Sau ñoù, moät cuoäc khuûng  hoaûng lôùn baét ñaàu: giaù chöùng khoaùn  leân xuoáng thaát thöôøng, khoâng coù caùch naøo löôøng tröôùc ñöôïc.

         Moïi ngöôøi baên khoaên vaø ñaët caâu hoûi: tình traïng baáp beânh ñaõ gaàn hai naêm roài, lieäu ta ñaõ troâng thaáy aùnh saùng ñeå ra khoûi ñöôøng haàm hay chöa?

         Ñeå laøm saùng toû vaán ñeà, phaûi ñaët caâu hoûi vaøo khung caûnh chung cuûa toaøn theå
 neàn kinh teá.

         Kinh teá thaêng traàm (business fluctuations) bao giôø cuõng ñi ñoâi vôùi  caùc thay ñoåi trong laõnh vöïc taøi chaùnh, - ñaëc bieät laø caùc thay ñoåi trong caùc keá hoaïch cuûa ngaân haøng trung öông (financial policies of the central bank).
         Ngaân Haøng Trung Öông taïi Hoa Kyø goïi  laø Heä Thoáng Döï Tröõ Lieân Bang (Federal Reserve System), goïi taét laø Federal Reserve, maø Chuû tòch laø Alan Greenspan). Oâng Greenspan tin töôûng raèng löu löôïng tieàn teä (flow of money) laø huyeát maïch thuùc ñaåy hoaït ñoäng saûn xuaát. Löu löôïng baønh tröôùng vaø taêng aùp löïc, töùc laø moïi hoaït ñoäng taêng gia, kinh teá thònh vöôïng. Aùp löïc taøi chaùnh maø giaûm bôùt, moïi hoaït ñoäng kinh teá seõ haï bôùt.
 Ñoù laø moät laäp luaän quen thuoäc maø caùc saùch giaùo khoa kinh teá goïi laø thuyeát löu löôïng tieàn teä (the quantity theory of money). Vôùi nhôõn quang ñoù, Döï Tröõ Lieân Bang chæ caàn haï bôùt laõi suaát thì saûn phí (production cost) cuûa caùc xí nghieäp seõ haï, doanh lôïi (profit) cuûa caùc xí nghieäp seõ taêng. Xí nghieäp seõ hoaït ñoäng nhieàu hôn, duøng nhieàu nguyeân lieäu vaø naêng
 löïc hôn; nhaân coâng nhieàu cô hoäi laøm vieäc. Toùm laïi, toaøn theå neàn kinh teá seõ thònh vöôïng.
 Taát nhieân laø, tôùi ñaây, ñoäc giaû seõ thaéc maéc maø ñaët caâu hoûi: Oâng Greenspan ñaõ haï laõi suaát nhieàu laàn, sao kinh teá vaãn chöa thònh vöôïng?
     Raát coù theå laø chính oâng Greenspan cuõng ñang thaéc maéc vaø töï ñaët caâu hoûi ñoù. Maáy thaùng nay oâng im laëng vaø quan saùt tình hình. Ta phaûi chôø ñôïi maõi tôùi ñaàu naêm 2002 môùi thaáy oâng ñoïc moät dieãn vaên chính thöùc.
     Xeùt toaøn theå lôøi tuyeân boá, seõ thaáy oâng Greenspan heát söùc deø daët vaø thaän troïng, chöù khoâng quaù laïc quan nhö nhieàu kinh teá gia khaùc. Laäp luaän cuûa oâng Greenspan ñaïi khaùi
 nhö sau:
         Ñaõ coù nhieàu daáu hieäu laø möùc giaù caû ñaïi cöông baét ñaàu oån coá, chöù khoâng thay
 ñoåi quaù thaát thöôøng nhö thôøi tröôùc. Tuy vaäy raát coù theå laø coøn nhieàu bieán coá baát
 ngôø (risks), -- nghiaõ laø ngöôøi Vieät ñaàu cô chöùng khoaùn khoù maø löôøng tröôùc ñöôïc, -- vì ta chöa tôùi thôøi kyø taùi thònh vöôïng lieân tuïc (sustainable recovery).
         Vôùi luaän ñieäu deø daët ñoù, raát coù theå laø Döï Tröõ Lieân Bang seõ giöõ laõi suaát taïi möùc raát thaáp hieän nay, -- vaäy khoâng neân chôø ñôïi laø Döï Tröõ Lieân Bang seõ naâng cao laõi suaát vaøo khoaûng muøa Thu naêm 2002.
         Caâu noùi môùi ñaàu coù veû sô saøi vaø khoâng gaây thaéc maéc gì heát, vì laõi suaát haï thì ñôøi soáng vaãn bình thöôøng nhö hieän nay, vieäc gì maø phaûi lo ngaïi baøn luaän maõi veà ñieåm naøy?
 Xin thöa: moät khi ñaùnh baïc ñaõ thaéng lôùn, -- maáy ai chòu ruùt lui an phaän? Kyù thaùc ngaân haøng ö? Laõi raát thaáp, thueá laáy gaàn heát, vaû laïi laïm phaùt tröôøng kyø seõ gaëm daàn vaøo voán, -- khieán cho "nöôùc laõ laïi ra soâng". Mua Coâng khoá phieáu (Treasury Bonds) ö? Thôøi haïn toái
 thieåu laø 5 naêm môùi ñöôïc ruùt voán. Ñôøi soáng chaéc chaén gì maø ñôïi laâu quaù theá?
 Oâng Greenspan laäp luaän nhö sau: "Maëc duø coù moät soá daáu hieäu laø neàn kinh teá baét ñaàu oån ñònh, haõy coøn quaù sôùm ñeå keát luaän raèng caùc löïc löôïng laøm trôû ngaïi hoaït ñoäng kinh teá taïi xöù ta vaø taïi ngoaïi quoác, ñaõ giaûm bôùt ñuû ñeå cho pheùp kinh teá baét ñaàu phuïc höng…
 Nhöõng daáu hieäu môùi nhaát veà söùc hoaït ñoäng cuûa neàn kinh teá hieän nay cho thaáy laø chuùng ta ñaõ qua moät giai ñoaïn bieán chuyeån tieâu cöïc trieàn mieân sang moät giai ñoaïn quaù nhieàu daáu hieäu maâu thuaån. Nhöng toâi nhaán maïnh laø ta vaãn chôø ñôïi quaù nhieàu hieåm tai quan troïng
 trong töông lai gaàn.
         Vì ñoaïn naøy quaù quan troïng, ñoäc giaû neân xem nguyeân vaên sau ñaây:  "Despite a number of encouraging signs  of stabilization, it is still premature to  conclude that the forces restraining economic activity here and abroad have  abated enough to allow a steady recovery to take hold… Recent signals about the current course of the economy have turned from unremittingly negative… to a far more mixed set of signals recently. But I
 would emphasize that we continue to face significant risks in the near term"
         Doanh lôïi thuaàn (net profit) cuûa caùc xí nghieäp khoâng taêng hoaëc taêng raát ít, vì
 theá ñaàu tö xí nghieäp (business investment) khoâng taêng ñöôïc. Chi tieâu gia ñình (household spending) khoâng taêng hoaëc vì moät phaàn nhaân coâng ñaõ maát vieäc, nghiaõ laø maát lôïi töùc thöôøng xuyeân; coøn laïi ngöôøi naøo chöa hay khoâng maát vieäc cuõng deø daët chi tieâu ñeå ñôïi giaù caû xuoáng hôn nöõa.
         Ñoù laø moät giaây chuyeàn nhaân quaû hoã töông (mutual causation, hoaëc reciprocal cause and effect relationship) noù raøng buoäc laãn nhau, -- vaø phaûi coù moät keá hoaïch ñeå phaù vôû moái giaây lieân hoaøn môùi mong tieán leân ñöôïc.
         Trong böùc tranh keùm vui töôi ñoù, chæ coù hai ñieåm saùng röïc: ñoù laø thò tröôøng ñòa oác vaø thò tröôøng xe hôi. Giaù nhaø ñaát taêng khaép nôi maø baùn vaãn ñaét haøng. Xe hôi baùn ñöôïc nhieàu vì caùc haõng ñua nhau baùn traû goùp maø khoâng tính laõi. Ngoaøi hai laõnh vöïc xe vaø nhaø, caùc bieán chuyeån kinh teá khaùc khoâng höùa heïn nhieàu laém trong töông lai.
         Vì sao? Vì kinh teá Myõ tuøy thuoäc söùc tieâu thuï vaø keá hoaïch tieâu thuï cuûa ñaïi chuùng. Noùi caùch khaùc, khi phaân tích kinh teá ngaøy nay, ta khoâng theå coi "cung" vaø "caàu" nhö hai thöïc theå rieâng bieät, hoaëc hai khiaù caïnh cuûa moät caùn caân, -- vaø laäp luaän raèng chæ khi naøo "cung" vöøa baèng "caàu" thì thò truôøng môùi tôùi theá quaân bình.  Beân "caàu' goàm taát caû ngöôøi tieâu thu (mua saûn phaåm vaø dòch vuï). Beân "cung" goàm taát caû moïi ngöôøi saûn xuaát (baùn saûn phaåm vaø dòch vuï). Neáu cung baèng caàu thì thò tröôøng quaân bình. Ngaøy nay, ngöôøi tieâu thuï laïi mua chöùng khoaùn vôùi tö caùch tieâu thuï, ngöôøi ñoù mong giaù haï. Vôùi tö caùch mua chöùng              khoaùn, nguôøi ñoù mong giaù taêng. Maâu thuaån khoù giaûi quyeát.
                             Soaïn giaû mong coù cô hoäi trôû laïi vaán ñeà.

 

         For the period 1993-2000, many overseas Vietnamese were successfully gaining
         wealth in stock speculation. After that, the stock crisis began: stock prices have
         umbled unpredictably. A question was raised: The period of risky
stock volatility has been two years. How long before we see the light at the end of            the tunnel? To make the matter clear, it is necessary to consider the question in terms of the  whole economy.

         Business fluctuations are always having relations with the changes in the financial

 market - especially the financial policies of the central bank. The central bank in the U.S. is called the Federal Reserve System (in short, Federal Reserve) whose chairman is Mr. Alan Greenspan.  He believes that flows of money are key to push up production activities. During the time that these flows are expanding, economic activities expand, the economy  is prosperous. For the periods that these flows are slowing, economic activities are in downturn. That is a familiar argument which economic textbooks call the quantity             theory of money. Under that view, The Federal Reserve only needs to reduce interest rates then production cost of the firms will be lower, and profit of the firms will increase. The firms will be more active, use more inputs, workers have more employment             opportunities. Briefly, the whole economy will be prosperous.
      Up to this point, readers will inevitably raise the question. Mr. Greenspan has decreased interest rates so many times, why has the economy not been prosperous.      Perhaps Mr. Greenspan is also asking himself that question. In the last few months, he has been silent; until early 2002 when he delivered an official speech. In his statement, he   expressed his prudence and somehow hesitancy, less optimism, not as many other economists. His arguments in  general are as follows:
    There have been signals that the overall price indexes begin stabilizing, no longer         massively fluctuated like before.However, there may still be unpredictable                      risks ahead. The Vietnamese who are involved in stock speculation should be                   alert, as the sustainable recovery cycle hasn't yet come.   With that argument, perhaps the Federal  Reserve will continue to keep low interest  rates like now, need not to have major changes in the Fall.  The news seems unlikely to cause major impact because should interest rates be low, the common people's life will still be  normal. Why should we fall into lengthy  debates about that matter? Following is the answer:
      Once entering into gambling and winning, how many of the gamblers will be pleased with what they have won and withdraw from the games forever? As various kinds of bank deposit and Treasury Bonds are not attractive due to low interests or long term, they are not the  chosen investments for speculators.
      Mr. Greenspan again argued:  "Despite a number of encouraging news of                stabilization, it is still premature to conclude that the forces restraining                           economic activity here and abroad have abated enough to allow a steady recovery               to take hold... Recent signals about the current course of the economy have                       turned from unremittingly negative... to a few more mixed set of signals recently.              But I would emphasize that we continue to face significant risks in the near term".
     Net profits of most firms have not increased or increased very little,                          therefore business investments tended to be low. Household spending has been                 restrained due to increased losses of employment and the consumers'                             psychology to protect themselves or wait for lower prices.
    That is a reciprocal cause and effect relationship. This kind of mutual                             causation needs an effective plan to break it to move forward. There are only two bright spots in that generally dull picture: The real estate market and the auto market. Real estate  prices have been increasing everywhere   and the auto companies offered such        incentives as zero interest rate financing and the like.
     Other activities are not bright. The reasons? The American economy is                             dependent upon purchase power and the consumption plans of the masses.                            The matter of today's economy is "supply" and "demand". These two factors are no           longer two separate entities which matching them would have equilibrium.                          Today, many consumers are both buying products/services and securities. As a                 buyer of products/services, he/she would like to see the prices dropping lower. As                an investor in the stock market, the same man would like the prices to increase. The           contradiction is difficult to resolve.
             The writer expects to return to this issue.